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	<title>humandoing software &#187; questions</title>
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		<title>On Estimating &#8211; What Kind of Risk Do You Prefer?</title>
		<link>http://blog.humandoing.net/2008/07/07/on-estimating-what-kind-of-risk-do-you-prefer/</link>
		<comments>http://blog.humandoing.net/2008/07/07/on-estimating-what-kind-of-risk-do-you-prefer/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Jul 2008 00:13:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Daniel Wintschel</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[development]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[questions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[thoughts]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Estimating development time of software is one of my least favorite things to do. Usually, I&#8217;m pretty good at it, but that doesn&#8217;t change the fact that it&#8217;s Time consuming Often grossly inaccurate Usually done while flying by the seat of your pants, with a marginal (at best) understanding of the functionality that you need [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Estimating development time of software is one of my least favorite things to do. Usually, I&#8217;m pretty good at it, but that doesn&#8217;t change the fact that it&#8217;s</p>
<ul>
<li>Time consuming</li>
<li>Often grossly inaccurate</li>
<li>Usually done while flying by the seat of your pants, with a marginal (at best) understanding of the functionality that you need to estimate.</li>
</ul>
<p>I&#8217;ve always been a pessimistic estimator, and it&#8217;s something that people I&#8217;ve worked with for a long time understand and appreciate (even if they make fun of me for it, at times).</p>
<p>Some people might think it&#8217;s crazy to be a pessimistic estimator, because any estimate that you give to a client that&#8217;s padded by 50 or 100% is potentially going to be high. It might be a <em>lot</em> higher than some other shop who might totally low-ball an estimate just to land a contract.</p>
<p>In my opinion, in my way of doing business, <strong>the risk of a dissatisfied customer from a blown budget due to a low-ball estimate is <em>significantly</em> greater than the risk of losing a few contracts because of pessimistic estimates</strong>.</p>
<p>I would rather estimate high and exceed expectations by coming in well under budget; even if it means that I lose some work along the way because someone felt my estimates were too high.</p>
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